Red Sea crisis escalated again, "one box is hard to find" situation reappeared

On July 2, Yemeni Houthi spokesman Yahya al-Sarea issued a statement saying that the Houthis, in cooperation with the Iraqi militia, the Islamic Resistance, had carried out a joint military operation against key targets in Haifa, Israel, using missiles to attack the targets.On July 1, Yahya al-Sarea issued a statement saying the Houthis had attacked four ships in the Red Sea, the Arabian Sea, the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean. Red Sea, the Arabian Sea, the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean attacked four ships. Of these, the Houthis attacked Israeli ships in the Arabian Sea, U.S. ships in the Red Sea, and British ships in the Indian Ocean. Since the outbreak of the Red Sea crisis in November last year, Eurasian cargoes via the Mediterranean Sea have had to travel around the Cape of Good Hope, taking an extra two weeks to complete their voyages. This means that traders need to put more ships into service to achieve a global logistics balance. With the continued turmoil in the geopolitical situation, especially the escalating situation in the Red Sea region, further reinforcing the expectation of a prolonged container ship detour, the global maritime industry is facing unprecedented challenges and opportunities. It is expected that in the next two months, superimposed on a number of factors such as ship delays, port congestion, extreme weather, etc., global consolidation capacity may be further tightened and further stimulate global shipping price increases.

The last week of the end of June, SCFI composite index reported 3714 points, up 6.9%, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) reported 2050 points, up 2.7%, July 2 BDI reported 2179 points, a new high level since May 8 this year, up 0.97% from the previous value, and for the fifth consecutive day of gains. Up to now, SCFIS European line has risen for 10 consecutive weeks, the cumulative increase of 151% (SCFIS reflects the spot market has actually happened freight prices; SCFI refers to 1 ~ 2 weeks after the booking price, has not yet been a real transaction of freight prices ). July 2, Shanghai International Shipping Research Center released the second quarter of 2024, China Shipping Prosperity Report shows that the second quarter of 2024, China shipping prosperity report. In the second quarter of 2024, China Shipping Prosperity Index was 122.05 points, a sharp rise of 18.17 points over the last quarter, jumping into a more prosperous range; at the same time, it is expected that China Shipping Confidence Index in the quarter was 141.88 points, a sharp rise of 27.11 points over the last quarter, from a relatively prosperous range to a more prosperous range, and all the enterprise confidence indices have risen and are located above the prosperity cut-off line. In addition, in the 26th week of 2024 (June 24-28), Tianjin Shipping Index (TSI), the weathervane for domestic and foreign trade shipping prices in northern China, closed at 1,418.94 points, a cumulative increase of 1.76% compared to June 21 (the last release date of the 25th week). In summary, international freight rates experienced a high level of shock at the end of June, global freight rates continue to move up, especially the main futures contract EC2408 of the Container Transportation Index (European line) in July 3 rose 2.57% to 5632.2 points; the forward contract 2410 rose 6.68% to 4,815 points, and the rest of the forward contracts have risen by more than 3%, and then hit a new record high of 5,579.1 points.

At the same time, the Red Sea crisis has also stimulated the growth of the air transport industry. July 3, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) latest report shows that in May the demand for air cargo in all regions of the world have seen a significant increase in the Middle East is particularly prominent, the Middle East and Europe between the demand for freight routes annual growth rate of up to 33.8%, and with the demand for freight transport between the Asian also increased by 18.6% year-on-year.

Moreover, as the global economy recovers moderately, the global manufacturing industry is also gradually picking up. on July 1, the United States in June, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final value of 51.6, is expected to be 51.7, the previous value of 51.7. this means that the global economy is in the above the line of glory, the manufacturing industry is a small expansion trend. With the stabilization of the global economy, as well as the rapid development of global e-commerce, bringing rapid growth in cross-border logistics, which is very favorable to the international shipping industry. According to Goldman Sachs Research, global e-commerce sales reached $3.6 trillion in 2023 and are expected to grow 8% year-on-year to $3.9 trillion in 2024.

International freight forwarding company Freightos estimates that although the negative impacts of the tariff turmoil in Europe and the United States and port strikes will gradually subside in the second half of the year, shipping companies will have to pay more attention to the security of their routes as the Houthis' military operations in the Red Sea region continue to escalate. More than eight months after the Red Sea crisis, global shipping companies such as Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk have shown no signs of wanting to return to the Suez Canal. Shipping giant Maersk said on July 1 that the next few months will be challenging months for shipping companies and businesses, as disruptions to container traffic through the Red Sea are expected to continue into the third quarter of this year. This means that it is difficult to see any hope of a solution to the high cost of international freight transportation any time soon, and freight rates on certain routes may continue to rise in the coming months.