reply With Trump's return, what is the outlook for U.S.-China economic and trade relations?

With Trump's victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, global attention is once again focused on the prospects of his upcoming return to the White House, particularly its potential impact on U.S.-China economic and trade relations. During his first term, Trump withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and opened up US-China trade friction through tax hikes, export controls, investment restrictions, trade sanctions and other measures, triggering major changes in the global trade landscape. During the campaign for the current election, he similarly put forward a tougher trade policy, declaring that he would raise taxes by 10% globally in general and 60% on China-related trade, and continue to impose export controls, investment restrictions, and so on.In light of China's current economic operation and foreign trade performance, if Trump comes to power and introduces the above policies, what will be the impact on China-U.S. economic and trade relations? How should China respond?A number of experts expressed their views on this at the recent China Macroeconomic Forum CMF Seminar on Hot Issues in Macroeconomics organized by Renmin University of China and China Chengxin International Credit Rating Co.In order to better analyze and predict Trump's second term trade policy and its impact, it is necessary to first understand the underlying logic of Trump's trade policy. Wang Xiaosong, a professor at the School of Economics of Renmin University of China, summarized it as five major features. The first is to strengthen the role of the executive branch in the field of trade, giving the U.S. president and the executive branch the main decision-making power on trade and economic issues, and reducing the involvement of Congress. The second is to strengthen the use of unilateral trade policy tools, such as reviving Section 301 and imposing high tariffs. Third, weakening multilateral rules, such as attempting to block the WTO negotiation process, which seeks to encourage the return of U.S. manufacturing, create more jobs, increase the independence of the U.S. economy, and put the U.S. back in control of global trade rules. Fourth, adjusting and changing the relationship with economic allies and renegotiating relevant agreements based on the principle of “America First”. Fifth, the integration of national security and economic development, the rise of China's economy threatens U.S. national security as a reason to contain China in various ways.Based on these underlying logical features, Wang Xiaosong further analyzes Trump's possible trade policy with China and its impact. The first is trade suppression, which is mainly embodied in tariffs, and may include revoking China's “most favored nation” status and preferential tariffs, imposing tariffs of 60 percent or more on all Chinese exports to the United States, stopping imports of essential goods from China within four years, and tightening restrictions on rules of origin. Next is the adoption of export controls and investment and financing restrictions on China. Then, it is to introduce industrial competition policies to promote the relocation of industrial chains out of China through production subsidies, “friendly-shore outsourcing”, “near-shore outsourcing”, and de-risking of the supply chain, so as to promote the “Made in America” policy. “This will be especially important for China's current priorities.This will particularly affect China's current key emerging industries. Wang Han, chief economist of Industrial Securities, mentioned that in the field of artificial intelligence and other high-tech areas, the United States and China will continue to compete fiercely, and the United States is likely to continue the suppression of China's supply chain. In the field of new energy vehicles, the United States is likely to try to establish a more complete, top-down design of the energy network to support the large-scale, standardized operation of new energy vehicles, and to challenge the development of China's new energy vehicles in the United States.Wang Han also said that Trump's future trade policy with China may also have an impact on the financial sector. Need to pay attention to after Trump took office, whether a part of the previous more dependent on the Democratic government subsidies of the United States high-tech enterprise market value will fall back from the top, resulting in greater turbulence in science and technology stocks, affecting and U.S. stocks and the close relationship between the operation of some of China's A-share concept stocks. At the same time, the current U.S. through high interest rates to maintain the attractiveness of the U.S. dollar, but high interest rates also make the debt rate rise, it is necessary to pay attention to how Trump balances the dollar and the U.S. debt problem, and to think about the related Federal Reserve policy on the global financial system and China's financial markets may have an impact.In addition, Tu Xinquan, director of the WTO Research Institute at the University of International Business and Economics, emphasized that the US-China game will be a medium- to long-term development race, and that it is necessary to be prepared for the long-term impact of Trump's second term trade policy towards China, optimize the layout of foreign trade and enhance industrial resilience.In response to the impact that Trump taking office again may have on China-U.S. economic and trade, experts also summarized the flexible countermeasures that China can take. At the domestic level, Guo Lei, chief economist of GF Securities, mentioned that the stock of demographic dividends can be utilized to develop the consumption and service industries, the engineers' dividends can be utilized to develop technology-based industries, and the delayed gratification dividends can be utilized to maintain a certain rate of reinvestment, boosting domestic demand and promoting innovation and transformation.At the international level, Tu Xinquan believes that three ideas can be referred to. One is to actively safeguard the multilateral trading system, support the WTO and other multilateral international trade organizations or mechanisms, unite other members, guarantee their normal operation, and create conditions for their further development. The second is to step up the construction of an international trade system in which China plays a leading role, expand high-level opening up to the outside world, establish an international trade framework around supply chains, the digital economy, cross-border e-commerce and other advantageous areas, and promote regional economic and trade cooperation. The third is to encourage Chinese enterprises to invest overseas, extend the overseas industrial chain, so that China's industrial chain all over the world, to counteract the United States may take the “decoupling and breaking the chain” measures.Trump has not yet been inaugurated, and it remains to be seen to what extent he will honor the policy ideas mentioned in his election campaign, especially how to establish the future development direction of China-US trade. In the face of a possible trade conflict between China and the U.S., as long as China further enhances its own economic strength and competitive advantages, and adopts a flexible and appropriate response strategy, the future is still full of hope.