The article "Gas bill - experts assess the impact of Nord Stream shutdown on the EU economy" was published by the Russian newspaper "Kommersant" on September 13. The full article is excerpted below.

　　The disruption of gas supply from the Russian Nord Stream pipeline will have significant economic consequences for European countries, including a slowdown or decline in GDP growth. "Analysts at Focus Economy believe that the gas shortage will have the greatest impact on the largest industrial economies - Germany and Italy.

　　Analysts at Capitol International Macroeconomic Consulting believe that higher energy prices will lead to a doubling of utility bills as a percentage of household disposable income, and that production losses could occur in the metallurgical and chemical industries, which account for the highest share of energy costs.

　　Before the announcement of the "Nord Stream" to stop gas transmission, "Focus on Economics" analysts have predicted that the third quarter GDP growth in the eurozone countries will slow sharply, October to December GDP contraction of 0.1%. Some economists predict that the region's GDP will fall next year. And, these forecasts are now likely to be revised further downward. Natural gas prices are now about three times higher than last year, and subsequent trends will depend on the availability of other gas pipelines and imports from other countries. The agency noted, "This is a major blow, but not a fatal one."

　　Analysts at the Economist Intelligence Unit predict that in addition to Germany and Italy, developed economies whose industries depend on Nord Stream for gas, Austria, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, whose governments are already preparing plans to cut gas demand, will also face gas shortages, which for the rest of the world will mean lower business activity and consumer confidence. lower confidence, as well as higher inflation. The euro will weaken against the dollar more than previously expected.

　　According to Capitol International Macroeconomic Consulting, the share of European households spending to pay for utilities could double to 10%, and a large share of businesses could lose money. State support should mitigate the impact and consumers will begin to conserve energy, but the impact will still be significant, which could lead to a deeper recession.

　　Analysts point out that for manufacturers, energy accounts for 1-3% of costs, but this share varies by industry: it may be less than 1% in the machine building industry, but more than 10% in the metallurgical and chemical industries, and up to 20% in the production of steel, fertilizers, glass and cement. At the same time, the company's ability to bear higher costs will depend on the level of profitability. Capitol International Macroeconomic Consulting notes that in industries with higher energy consumption, profit margins tend to be lower and the ability to raise selling prices is lower.

　　Goldman Sachs predicts that chemical and cement producers in Germany and Italy may need to reduce their natural gas consumption by about 80 percent as higher energy prices are fully passed on to consumers, with heating and electricity bills rising from 160 euros to 500 euros. By March 2023, such restrictions could lead to a 2% drop in GDP in the eurozone, and 4% and 3% in Italy and Germany, respectively.

　　However, this is the worst possible scenario. The proposed price limits and other tax reductions would go some way toward dampening the economic impact of higher energy prices.