The latest statistics released by the Korea Customs Service on February 13 show that the deficit in Korea's international trade balance has reached US$4.971 billion in the first 10 days of February this year. The cumulative deficit so far this year has reached US$17.622 billion, 37% of Korea's record trade deficit of US$47.5 billion for the whole of last year. Since March last year, Korea has been running a trade deficit for 11 consecutive months. This is the first time since January 1995 to May 1997 that Korea has been running a continuous trade deficit for such a long period of time. Specifically, the increase in the proportion of energy imports such as oil and natural gas, as well as the decrease in major exports such as semiconductors, are the main reasons for Korea's persistent trade deficit. In particular, Korea's exports of semiconductors (-40.7%), home appliances (-32.9%) and computer ancillary equipment (-45.6%) all fell year-on-year.

The sharp decline in Korea's exports of semiconductors, home appliances and computer ancillary equipment signifies a sharp contraction in demand for these goods in the international market. In particular, the 40% drop in semiconductor exports has greatly increased the risk of a world recession this year. Because the semiconductor has the world's economic development of the first indicator role, if the semiconductor industry development continues to slow down, the global economic development will slow down. Coupled with the fact that US high-tech companies have been laying off employees, IT giants have taken measures to control investment in data centres to cope with the post-epidemic market supply and demand changes following the current decline in online demand and gradual recovery of offline demand during the new crown epidemic. ABB's chairman Pete Forsythe recently made it clear that in the semiconductor sector, the slowdown in economic activity is helping to balance the supply shortage, and that living Rising costs will lead to weaker consumer demand for pricey chip goods.

The sharp cut in demand for chips is already indicative of the slowdown in global economic growth. Maersk, the world's second largest container shipping company, reported lower earnings in the fourth quarter of last year at the beginning of February, with a 14% year-on-year decline in container volume and a 3.5% year-on-year decline in loaded freight rates in the fourth quarter, resulting in a slight drop in revenue to US$17.8 billion for the quarter. Earnings before tax, interest, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) reached US$6.5 billion in the fourth quarter, below the US$6.77 billion widely forecast by analysts and below the US$8 billion forecast for the same period in 2021. Looking ahead to this year, Maersk said it expects profits and demand to fall sharply as the industry returns to normalisation. The shipping giant is widely seen as a barometer of global trade, and Maersk expects global GDP growth to slow in 2023, with weaker economic growth leading to a 2.5 per cent drop in global container demand for the year. By mid-February, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell for the sixth consecutive week this year, once below 600 points, the BDI has fallen by more than half, hitting a new low in two and a half years, with daily charter rates for various vessel types falling all the way down to basically below cost price and a weak recovery in the dry bulk shipping market. As the market in the Pacific region did not pick up as expected after the end of the Chinese New Year holiday, coupled with the still weak performance of demand on long-haul mining routes and poor shipments from Brazil, transport demand continued to be weak.

Not only are South Korean exports declining, but exports and economic growth are also slowing in some regions. on 10 February Bank Negara Malaysia said that export growth will slow in 2023, dragged down by weak global demand. on 13 February, Singapore's Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) predicted that Singapore's economic growth will slow further this year, given that the global economy will still face uncertainty in 2023. Bank of England Chief Economist Peel said that the economy is expected to weaken somewhat now that some signs of easing in labour market data are being seen. The US Department of Commerce recently mentioned that the total value of imports of goods and services has fallen for two consecutive quarters in the third and fourth quarters of 2022; demand for consumer durables is slowing after being pulled up during the pandemic, and capital spending is tapering off, both of which are putting pressure on US imports. This trend of a continued decline in US imports deserves particular attention.

According to the latest Global Trade Outlook report released by the WTO (World Trade Organization), global merchandise trade volume growth will slow to 1% in 2023 from 3.5% in 2022, a sharp decline from the previous estimate of 3.4%, due to the significantly higher risk of a global recession. the WTO suggested that previous trade expectations for 2023 seemed overly optimistic, as inflation is now more widespread and the Ukraine crisis shows no sign of abating. UNCTAD also believes that the slowdown in global trade growth is likely to continue, driven by negative factors such as lower economic growth rates, higher prices for traded goods and concerns about debt sustainability. The latest report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) points out that trade fragmentation will lead to a contraction in global economic output ranging from 0.2% to 7%, the size of which will depend on the extent of trade fragmentation, and if coupled with further technological decoupling between China and the US, GDP contraction in some countries could reach 12%.