The indirect economic loss would be $75 billion! Japan will not let up as the epidemic spreads... Behind the postponement of the Tokyo Olympic Games, the dark war frequently

The exhibition of the Olympic flame was suspended, the torch relay was cancelled, the games were postponed for a year, and of all the sports events in the world, the Tokyo Olympics was undoubtedly the most affected by the outbreak. The postponement of the Tokyo Olympics is not only a delay in the games, but also a huge loss for Japan.

How did such a tough decision come about? What is the hidden war behind this?

For a time, Japan insisted that the Tokyo Olympics go ahead

As early as the end of January, many media expressed pessimistic views on the Olympic Games going ahead as planned, and Japan reiterated three times in three weeks that it would not cancel.

Bach's comments put the cancellation or postponement of the Olympics on hold. But the fragile calm was soon broken by someone.

The Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games could be canceled if the outbreak is not contained by late may, a senior member of the international Olympic committee (ioc) has said.

Mr. Pound's comments weighed on the Tokyo organizing committee, which came as Japan remained steadfast, with prime minister shinzo Abe saying his government was making 'all-out preparations' for the games to go ahead as scheduled. Almost at the same time, Bach's attitude began to be nuanced.

Shinzo Abe, prime minister of Japan: I think the Tokyo Olympics and paralympics should be held perfectly, so that it becomes a symbol of mankind's victory over a novel coronavirus. The idea has the backing of the G7.

On March 18, the international Olympic committee held more than two hours of teleconference with representatives of 220 athletes from around the world.

Skinner: I think the Tokyo Olympics should be postponed. I think it's the best option at the moment. If we want to hold an Olympic Games without a boycott, then postponing the games is the only option.

Things quickly moved from the individual to the national level. Canada is the first country to say it won't send anyone if the games aren't postponed. Australia, Switzerland, Norway and Britain followed suit.

The international Olympic committee, beset by internal and external difficulties, said it would discuss the fate of the Tokyo games. Japan also mentioned the possibility of postponing the games for the first time on March 23.

Japan expert zhang hong: the Japanese side and the international Olympic committee (ioc) in this incident, has shown a long-term relationship of common progress and common retreat. In fact, however, the two sides were still at odds during the whole process.

The postponement of the Tokyo Olympics cost Japan dearly

The decision to postpone the Tokyo Olympics was fraught with jockeying, not least in Japan. In the face of the global outbreak and the virtual impossibility of the Tokyo Olympics, Japan refused to let up until the international Olympic committee (ioc) said it would raise its hand.

What is the game? The answer, of course, is money.

According to the Japan economic research, the government has spent about $40 billion on both venues and hotel capacity.

If the games were postponed for a year, the cost of maintaining the venues and the cost to the competing groups of hosting the qualifying events would add up to $5.8 billion.

Japan expert zhang hong: if the delay is one year, all the venues, publicity and operations must continue. For a year like this, Japan's agencies' budgets will have to rise.

If the games are not held this year, the indirect economic losses could reach $75 billion, or 1.4% of Japan's GDP, according to Nikko cordial. The delay could lead to negative GDP growth of 0.7% to 1.4%.

Abe made a surprise appearance as super Mario at the closing ceremony of the 2016 Rio Olympics in hopes of staging the games soon to improve Japan's long economic slump. It is widely believed in Japan that the Olympics first saved the country's fortunes 56 years ago.

At the 1964 Tokyo Olympics, Japan spent 1 trillion yen, or about $3 billion at the time, to support construction. Large-scale infrastructure construction promoted the rapid growth of the national economy, which led to the "Olympic boom" in 1962-1964.

In terms of Japan's real GDP growth, it was 7.0 per cent in 1962, rose to 10.5 per cent in 1963 and 13.1 per cent in 1964. And Tokyo and even the entire Japanese economic strength and urban landscape, have undergone a qualitative change.

Japan expert zhang hong: at that time, there was a kind of high speed railway in Japan. It was not called high speed railway, it was called Shinkansen. The Shinkansen was built at this time, greatly shortening the connection between Japan's two major industrial regions.

Having tasted the benefits of the Olympics, Japan is once again pinning its hopes on the 2020 games in Tokyo, where it has poured enormous amounts of manpower and money into a desperate attempt to recapture yesterday's glory.

However, the outbreak of covid-19 has cast a heavy cloud over the future of the Tokyo Olympics.

Race schedules crash

The decision to postpone the Tokyo Olympics is a difficult one because it will not only cause huge losses to Japan, but also affect sponsors, broadcasters, even the international Olympic committee and other sports events.

Major sports events such as the world athletics championships, the world university summer games and the club World Cup have been scheduled for the summer of 2021. The European championship and the copa America, originally scheduled for 2020, were postponed to the summer of 2021 due to the outbreak. So postponing the games until next summer will have a knock-on effect.

He wenyi, a researcher with the national sports industry research base of Peking University: the Olympic Games and the world championships are all scheduled in advance. The iaaf track and field championships have been postponed, and after that, the 2022 Asian games could have an impact. Including the winter Olympics, where there used to be two years between the summer Olympics and the winter Olympics, now there is a six month difference.

On March 3rd NBC universal, an American entertainment and media company, announced that it had sold about $1.25 billion of national advertising for the Tokyo Olympics, with 90% of the slots for the games fully booked. Now, how to deal with these ads has become a new problem.

According to the Tokyo organizing committee's plan, the 2020 games are expected to generate about 630 billion yen in revenue, nearly two-thirds of which will come from sponsors. But the years of sponsorship for different sponsors can also overlap due to the postponement of the games.

In June 2019, mengniu signed a $3 billion, 12-year contract with the international Olympic committee (ioc) to become a TOP co-sponsor, effective from 2021. Meiji, a Japanese dairy company, is a domestic sponsor of the 2020 Tokyo Olympics and a "Tokyo 2020 gold medal partner".

TOP sponsors are entitled to exclusivity, which means that there will be no other competitors among the sponsors of the same period, which will also be a big problem for the Tokyo Olympic sponsors list.

In addition to events, Copyrights, commercial sponsorships and so on, the business interests associated with the world-class IP of the Olympic Games are also involved in sports marketing, derivatives and even quadratic. The dominoes toppled by the postponement of the Tokyo Olympics are touching a growing number of nerves.