According to the latest covid-19 statistics released by Johns Hopkins university on May 21, there have been more than 5 million confirmed cases worldwide. The outbreak has hit the world economy hard. As economic activity continues to stagnate, manufacturing in Britain, the euro zone and Japan is still in deep contraction, but in different ways.
Data released on May 21 by IHSMarkit showed Japan's preliminary manufacturing purchasing managers' index continued to slide to 38.4 in May, down from 41.9 the previous month and the lowest reading since March 2009. So far, the manufacturing index has fallen below the 50-point mark that separates expansion from contraction for the 13th consecutive month.
On May 20, Japan's Reuters tankan manufacturing sentiment index fell to -44 in May, the lowest level since June 2009.
Japan's gross domestic product data this week showed the economy slipped into recession for the first time since 2015; Japan is poised for its worst recession since the war, as the covid-19 epidemic hits businesses and consumers hard. This will continue to hit output orders.
"Although the pace of decline in service sector activity slowed slightly, the sharp drop in commodity demand ultimately dragged down manufacturing," said JoeHayes, an analyst at IHSMarkit, which conducted the survey.
In the hard-hit auto industry, for example, total global vehicle sales at Japan's top seven automakers fell 7.3 percent to 26.5 million vehicles in fiscal year 2019, the lowest in four years, according to vehicle sales data compiled by Reuters.
The euro zone's manufacturing PMI rose slightly in May to 30.5, still in recession, as measures to combat the epidemic eased.
Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHSMarkit, said business activity in the euro zone fell further in May, but the survey data at least provided reassuring signs that the downturn could bottom out in April. GDP is still likely to fall at an unprecedented rate in the second quarter, by about 10 per cent compared with the first quarter, but the rise in the PMI added to expectations that the slowdown should ease into the summer as restrictions are further lifted.
France's manufacturing PMI rebounded to 40.3 in May, better than expected, and the recovery is facing difficulties, according to PMI data from major eurozone economies in France and Germany. Germany's manufacturing PMI edged up to 36.8 in May, but missed expectations and the recovery was uncertain.
Analysts expect demand in Germany to remain weak for a long time, so companies continue to cut jobs at a worrying pace to better align capacity with current conditions. The scale of unemployment is a key risk to the long-term outlook.
The UK manufacturing PMI rebounded to 40.60 in May, better than economists had expected, but still in a severe contraction. Companies report a severe lack of new business. Many businesses fear it will take a long time to recover. Some service companies remain deeply pessimistic about the near-term outlook.
IHSMarkit says many companies have put more than half of their employees on furlough and have adopted an emergency government program to pay 80 percent of their salaries. Employment fell again in May, but at a slower rate than in April.
Chris Williamson said the UK economy was still in unprecedented straits, with the economic downturn, business activity and employment still contracting at an alarming rate in May.
In addition to concerns about the epidemic and the economic outlook, investors are more concerned about the brexit process and the bank of England's intensified easing expectations. Against this backdrop, sterling continued to come under pressure in the foreign exchange market, despite a slightly better than expected reading of the UK's preliminary PMI for may.
In light of the economic downturn in the UK, the new governor of the bank of England, AndrewBailey, has backtalked and said the bank would actively review the lower limit for interest rates during the covid-19 outbreak and would not rule out negative rates.