On August 19, the world trade organization (WTO) released the latest trend of global trade assessment report "goods trade barometer", points out that in the second quarter of 2020, world trade in goods in historic decline, but other indicators suggest that there will be a part of the third quarter of the global trade in goods and output to rise, global trade in the early signs of recovery, but the recovery and the trend is still has a high degree of uncertainty.

The latest global "Barometer of trade in goods" reading was 84.5, 15.5 points below the benchmark of 100 and 18.6 points lower than the same period last year. This is the lowest figure since 2007 and is comparable to the nadir of the international financial crisis in 2008. The reading is also broadly consistent with data released by the WTO in June. The WTO then forecast that trade in goods would fall by 18.5% in the second quarter of 2020 compared with the same period last year. The exact extent of the decline in trade in goods will not be determined until official trade data for The april-June period are available.

'All components of the reading are still well below trend, with many at historic lows, but some have begun to stabilize,' the report said. Among them, the automobile products (71.8) and air freight index (76.5) is the worst since 2007, container shipping index (86.9) is still weak, but the export orders index (88.4) have been recovered and shows signs of recovery, electronic components (92.8) and agricultural raw materials index (92.5) and maintain a relatively good situation only a small drop.

According to the WTO's June statistics, global trade in goods fell by 14% in the first and second quarters of this year. That estimate, combined with the latest "barometer of trade in goods" reading, predicts a 13 per cent contraction in global trade in goods this year compared with 2019. Global trade trends may not be too pessimistic, but they will be much lower than they were before the outbreak. In June, WTO economists warned that the severe economic damage caused by the COVID-19 outbreak suggested that forecasts of a strong V-shaped rebound in global trade by 2021 might be too optimistic. With uncertainty about economic and trade policies and the evolution of the epidemic still on the rise, an L-shaped recovery in global trade, with a steady pace of growth after a downturn, remains a possibility.

Trends in global trade in goods can also be seen in the sub-index of the barometer of trade in goods reading. Commercial flights, closely related to trade in goods and services, are an important indicator of global economic conditions. From the end of February to mid-April, global flights fell by almost 80 per cent, with international flights down more than domestic flights. By the end of July, the total number of flights had gradually resumed, but it was still about 40 per cent lower than at the start of the year.

Container port calls fell sharply in February as a result of the outbreak, then rebounded, but fell again in April and May, according to the United Nations' International Maritime Organization. As of early August, container port calls were still down about 7% from a year earlier, a slight improvement from an 11% drop in May.

The price of copper futures contracts has been a widely accepted indicator of economic activity. In mid-March, copper futures were down 27 per cent from the start of the year, but have since risen 37 per cent, reflecting rising expectations of an economic recovery. Of course, economic recovery expectations will depend on how the COVID-19 outbreak evolves.

Separately, negative news reports on global economic activity bounced back after bottoming out in March, and the change in tone since then suggests that perceptions of the global economy are improving, while concerns about the global economy are waning.