Global trade in goods will continue to recover in 2021 after falling sharply in the second quarter of last year due to the COVID-19 epidemic, according to the latest Trade in Goods Barometer released by the World Trade Organization (WTO) on May 28.

It is understood that the WTO's regular Trade in Goods Barometer has been regarded as a comprehensive leading indicator of global trade. The current barometer reading stands at 109.7, nearly 10 points above the benchmark of 100 and 21.6 points higher than a year ago. This reading reflects the strong recovery of global trade in goods in the face of the epidemic, and indirectly reflects the depth of the impact of the epidemic on global trade in goods last year.

All of the barometer's sub-indices were above trend and on an upward trend trend in the latest month, underscoring the broad-based recovery in global trade in goods and the accelerating pace of expansion in trade. Among the sub-indexes, export orders (114.8), air freight (111.1) and electronic components (115.2) led the growth, which is highly in line with the recent forecast of global trade in goods. Given that consumer confidence is closely tied to durable goods sales, the improvement was reflected in strong readings for automotive products (105.5) and agricultural raw materials (105.4). The strong performance of container shipping (106.7) was particularly impressive, showing that global shipping held up well during the epidemic.

The latest edition of the barometer of trade in goods is basically in line with the global trade forecast released by the WTO on March 31.

In the second quarter of 2020, when the blockade restrictions were fully implemented, the volume of trade in goods fell by 15.5 percent year on year, but by the fourth quarter, trade in goods had surpassed the level of the same period in 2019. While quarterly trade volume statistics for the first and second quarters of 2021 are not yet available, year-on-year growth is expected to be very strong, in part due to the recent strengthening of overall global trade and the low starting point caused by last year's significant decline in global trade as a result of the outbreak.

It should be noted that the relatively positive near-term global trade outlook has been undermined by regional disparities, persistent weakness in trade in services and delays in vaccination in low-income countries. The COVID-19 outbreak continues to pose a threat to the outlook for global trade, and a possible new wave could derail the recovery in global trade.