In November, China's steel exports recorded negative year-on-year growth for the first time in a year. Lange steel research center analyst Wang Jing analysis pointed out that China's steel exports down trend is basically established, in the short term, the overall difficult to have a significant increment.

The latest data released by customs shows that In November, China exported 4.361 million tons of steel, down 0.9% year on year; Imported steel was 1.424 million tons, down 23.2% year on year. In the first 11 months, China exported 61.875 million tons of steel, up 26.7% year on year. Accumulated imports of steel 13.267 million tons, down 29.6% year on year.

Although the cumulative export volume of the first 11 months has exceeded the whole of last year, this year's steel exports will rebound after five consecutive years of decline, but in November, China's steel exports still continue to decline in the month, the export volume decreased 136,000 tons than In October, down 3.0%; It was the first negative growth this year, with a slight decrease from the same period last year.

This year, China's steel exports are still dominated by plates, and the increment is mainly contributed by plates. According to the customs statistics monthly report, from January to October, China's steel exports of plate 39.02 million tons, up 45.1% year on year, plate exports accounted for 67.8% of the total exports of steel; The export of steel and bar was 7.1 million tons, up 22.1% year on year, accounting for 12.3%. Angle and section steel exports 2.21 million tons, down 5.4% year on year, the export accounted for 3.8%.

From the perspective of global supply and demand, the global manufacturing PMI released by China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing rose 0.4 percentage points from the previous month to 56.1% in November, maintaining an upward trend for two consecutive months. By region, manufacturing growth in all continents accelerated from the previous month. Among them, the growth rate of manufacturing industry in Africa showed a relatively obvious rebound compared with the previous month, the growth rate of manufacturing industry in Asia and Europe increased slightly, and the growth rate of manufacturing industry in America was basically stable.

"Despite the accelerated overseas economic recovery, the steel market has suffered a significant cooling, with major regional markets in the world having entered a downward trend since October." On the supply side, global crude steel production fell 10.6 per cent in October from a year earlier due to a sharp reduction in Chinese output, Ms Wang said. Production outside Of China has maintained year-on-year growth, and there has been a certain increase in the previous quarter. The supply and demand of the global steel market tends to balance.

In China, steel export orders have performed poorly. Since October, with the adjustment of the domestic steel market price, steel export quotation will be lowered. According to the monitoring data of Lange Steel Cloud merchant platform, on December 6th, China's export price of hot-rolled coil (FOB) was 772 USD/ton, which was 16 USD, 88 USD and 33 USD lower than that of India, Turkey and CIS respectively. The price competitiveness of China's steel export showed.

However, while the overseas steel supply gradually recovered, the surrounding countries affected by the epidemic steel demand is weak, the transaction is light, China's steel export actual orders are not good. China's steel industry's new export orders index was 34.8 percent in November, down 3.9 percentage points from the previous month and in contraction territory for seven consecutive months, according to the China Wulian Steel Logistics Committee.

Hot-rolled coil, "China plate export price has certain advantages, but export orders from steel industry, steel exports downtrend basically established, exports since the second half of the reduced gradually, and during the year and next year export or be phased recovery, but the overall difficult have obvious increment, exports this year is expected to 66 million tons." Jing wang pointed out that under the "double carbon" target, domestic steel demand, steel industry first guaranteed and inhibition of steel export direction is set, if the future spreads widened inside and outside, do not rule out the possibility of further restrictions export policies and measures, steel exports after the realization of positive growth this year, in 2022 is expected to gradually shrink, or reproduce the downward trend.

Looking at imports, with the general adjustment of peripheral market prices, China's steel imports present a situation of falling prices and rising volumes. According to the calculation of Lange Steel Research Center, in November, the average price of China's steel imports was us $1402.0 / ton, down US $56.2 / ton compared with October; Imports rose by 297,000 tons from the previous month to the highest level this year, but the cumulative imports from January to November were still lower than the same period last year. In view of the overall domestic demand is still weak, the overseas market continues to adjust but the price advantage is not obvious, the import scale or difficult to large volume, Wang Jing is expected to steel annual imports or in 15 million tons.