Entering 2022, will global air transport take on a new look? A clue may be in the latest figures from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) on the global air transport market.

In terms of cargo, global air cargo demand growth slowed in January 2022, up 2.7% in freight tonnage kilometres (CTKs) compared to January 2021 (international demand up 3.2%), significantly lower than the growth rate in December 2021 (9.3%) due to supply chain disruptions, capacity constraints and the economic downturn. International demand rose 11.1 per cent). Capacity increased by 11.4% compared to January 2021 (international capacity increased by 10.8%), but remained constrained compared to pre-COVID-19 levels.

What's driving the slowdown in freight demand? Iata outlined several issues: supply chain disruptions caused by flight cancellations due to labor shortages, severe winter weather, and slow 5G deployment in the US. Second, the global purchasing managers' index (PMI) for new export orders fell below 50 in January for the first time since August 2020, with new export orders falling across the majority of companies surveyed. Third, the Purchasing Managers' index (PMI) of Global supplier delivery time in January was 37.8. While a figure below 50 is generally favorable for air cargo, in current conditions lead to extended lead times due to supply bottlenecks.

Willie Walsh, IATA director general, said: "Air cargo demand rose 2.7 per cent in January, slower than expected, but this year cargo growth is more normal and is expected to grow 4.9 per cent. "Looking ahead, the freight market will be affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, manufacturing and economic activity will be affected by sanctions-related impacts, combined with higher oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty, and capacity will come under greater pressure, and freight rates may move higher."

"The airspace closure has disrupted direct links to many Russia-related markets, so the conflict will have a negative impact on air cargo, but overall the impact on global markets is expected to be low." Willie Walsh went on.

Regionally, Asia Pacific airlines saw a 4.9 percent increase in air cargo volume and an 11.4 percent increase in available capacity in January compared to the same month in 2021. North American airlines saw a 1.2 percent drop in cargo volume and an 8.7 percent increase in capacity. European airlines saw a 7 per cent increase in cargo volumes and an 18.8 per cent increase in capacity. Middle Eastern airlines were the weakest of all regions with a 4.6 per cent drop in cargo volumes, with capacity up 6.2 per cent. Latin American airlines saw cargo volumes rise 11.9 per cent while capacity fell 12.9 per cent. African airlines had the strongest performance among all regions, with cargo volumes up 12.4 per cent, with capacity up 13 per cent.

In the passenger market, the data showed a slower recovery in domestic and international air traffic in January 2022 compared to December, after travel restrictions were tightened again in November 2021 due to the Omicron strain.

Willie Walsh said: "Passenger traffic continued to recover in January despite the slowdown from the Omicron strain. Tighter border controls have not stopped the spread of the mutated strain. In areas with strong immune populations, public health systems have not collapsed. Many governments have adjusted their COVID-19 policies to pandemic levels, including lifting travel restrictions that have a significant impact on life, economy and freedom of travel."

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which began in late February, has also had an impact on the air passenger market. The Ukrainian market accounted for 3.3 percent of European passenger traffic and 0.8 percent of global passenger traffic in 2021, according to the data. Russia's international market accounted for 5.7 per cent of passenger traffic in Europe (excluding Russia's domestic market) and 1.3 per cent of global passenger traffic.

Willie Walsh said sanctions and airspace closures as a result of the conflict are expected to have a negative impact on passenger traffic, mainly on Europe-Asia routes, followed by Asia-North America routes. In 2021, Asia -- North America and Asia -- Europe accounted for 3% and 4.5% of global international passenger traffic, respectively.

On top of that, a sudden jump in fuel prices is putting pressure on airlines' costs. "As of March 4, jet fuel was trading at over $140 / BBL. As the industry struggles to limit losses in the wake of the COVID-19 crisis, sharply rising costs are a huge challenge. "If jet fuel prices stay at this high level for a long time, it could affect airline earnings." Willie Walsh said.