reply Latin America is Mired in recession and recovery is slow

Affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, Latin America's economy and social structural contradictions became prominent in 2020, and its economy once fell into a deep recession. Since the second half of the year, many Latin American economies have shown signs of recovery and are expected to recover slowly in 2021. Economic and trade relations with China have become one of the important forces for the stabilization and improvement of the regional economy.Since the confirmation of the first COVID-19 case in Brazil at the end of February, many Countries in Latin America have launched quarantine measures at home, restricted non-essential activities and closed their borders, severely affecting economic development. Mexico's GDP fell 18.7% in the second quarter from a year earlier, its worst performance in 30 years. In Colombia, the decline was 15.7 per cent, the biggest on record. Peru recorded its worst performance, down 30.2 per cent year on year.Since the second half of the year, many Latin American countries, under economic pressure, had to resume work and production at the peak of the epidemic. As a major Latin American economy, Brazil and Mexico have recovered some economic indicators. Mexico's major economic sectors, such as manufacturing and foreign trade, led by the automobile industry, are recovering gradually, while Brazil's services and other sectors severely affected by the epidemic have improved significantly. The Ilo reports that employment in Latin America and the Caribbean eased in the latter part of the second quarter.Alfredo Cortino, head of Latin America at Moody's Analytics, said the region was gradually reversing the recession in the third quarter of this year on the back of renewed domestic consumer demand and increased global external demand. As economies such as China recover, external demand for raw materials and manufactured goods is strengthening, especially in electronics and automobiles. Some forecasters and central banks are gradually raising their forecasts for Latin American economies by 2020.The United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean released a report on December 16, saying the region's economy is expected to contract 7.7 percent this year and grow 3.7 percent next year. Moody's Analytics predicts the region's economy will contract 7.2 percent this year and grow 4.3 percent next year. S&p forecasts that gross domestic product in the region's major economies will return to pre-epidemic levels by the second half of 2022, with Mexico and Argentina relatively slow.Latin America's economic recovery faces many challenges. Since the second half of the year, Many countries, including Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Argentina and Mexico, have experienced a rebound from the epidemic. Latin America has become the worst-hit region in the world, so we need to strike a balance between resuming work and production as much as possible and fighting the epidemic.According to the Analysis of the Global Economic Outlook released by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development in December, although Argentina reached a debt restructuring agreement in the second half of the year, which alleviated the debt crisis to some extent, the country's macroeconomic imbalance and long-term household isolation and other measures led to the sluggish domestic demand and affected the economic recovery. High fiscal deficits also add to inflationary pressures. Chile has adopted sound fiscal and monetary policies, taken strong measures to prevent a prolonged economic recession and the further impact of the epidemic, and continued to promote structural reforms and increase investment in public projects such as education and infrastructure.International credit rating agency Standard & Poor's and other institutions pointed out that most Latin American countries lacked sufficient fiscal stimulus policies, insufficient support for the employment market, trade development and other areas, and long-term home quarantine and other anti-epidemic measures affected economic growth in most countries.At the same time, the long-term spread of COVID-19 in Latin America has aroused deep economic and social contradictions. According to a report by the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean and other agencies, the poverty rate in the region will rise by 37.7 percent by 2020, and more than 98 million Latin American people will fall into extreme poverty. In addition, Latin American countries generally have many structural problems in economic development, such as the high proportion of informal employment and backward development of digital economy, which aggravate the impact on regional economic growth.Roberto Barcena, executive secretary of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, said the region was facing its worst economic crisis in 120 years because of the multiple negative effects of the outbreak, which had been compounded by a decade of low growth. Economic recovery in the region will be weak next year and may not return to pre-epidemic levels until 2024.Since December, Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Costa Rica and other countries have made progress in external vaccine cooperation. Paulo Guidos, Brazil's economy minister, said the extent of the country's future sustainable economic recovery depended on a recovery in investment and consumption driven by mass vaccinations. He said a safe resumption of work and employment would also give a strong boost to economic growth. Mexican Deputy Health Minister Lopez-Gartley said the vaccination will open a "light of hope" in Mexico's fight against the epidemic, hoping that through vaccination, to promote the establishment of an effective epidemic prevention mechanism to curb the rapid spread of the epidemic.Marcos Casarin, chief Latin America economist at Oxford Economics, a British think tank, said that while countries such as Brazil and Argentina will be more sensitive to government finances, Chile and Peru will largely depend on changes in domestic politics. A weaker dollar and higher international oil prices will be a positive factor in propelling developing economies forward. Next year's vaccination will help to promote the resumption of work in the service sector and other areas, as well as prevent economic risks in the Region.