reply There are concerns that global trade growth will slow

Growth in global trade in goods weakened at the beginning of this year after a strong rebound in 2021, according to data released by the World Trade Organization (WTO). The latest global Trade Update report released by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development also noted that global trade growth reached a record high in 2021, but the growth momentum is expected to slow down.Looking ahead to the trend of global trade this year, it is widely believed that the strength of the world economic recovery, the demand of major economies, the global epidemic situation, the repair of global supply chains and geopolitical risks will all affect global trade.Growth momentum will weakenThe latest Barometer of trade in goods released by the WTO showed the global sentiment index for trade in goods was 98.7, below the benchmark point of 100, down slightly from 99.5 in November last year.Unctad's updated report forecasts that global trade growth will slow in the first quarter of this year, with trade in goods and services likely to register only modest growth. The sharp growth in international trade in 2021 was mainly due to higher commodity prices, easing of COVID-19 restrictions and a strong recovery in demand as a result of economic stimulus packages. With these factors likely to abate, international trade is expected to return to normal this year.According to the WTO report, global trade in goods will grow by 10.8 percent in 2021, which is a relatively strong rebound from the low base in 2020, Lu Yan, deputy director of the World Economy Research Institute under the Chinese Academy of Commerce, told The International Business Daily. Behind the strong growth of global trade, the trend of world trade is not stable. There are significant differences in the recovery of trade in different regions, and some developing regions lag far behind the global average. In addition, poor international logistics and supply chain bottlenecks have also interfered and restricted the recovery of international trade. Global trade in services remains weak relative to trade in goods, particularly in sectors related to tourism and leisure."Downside risks to global trade are prominent, and the growth momentum of global trade slowed in the first quarter. "Due to political and economic factors, global trade in goods is expected to grow less this year than in 2021." Lu Yan said.Still affected by multiple factorsWhile the pandemic will continue to pose a threat to economic activity and global trade, the choice of some countries to relax quarantine policies could spur trade growth in the coming months, the WTO said. At the same time, the WTO also pointed out that the container throughput of the world's major ports is stable at a high level, but the problem of port congestion still persists. While global lead times are shrinking, they are not fast enough for many producers and consumers.The WTO's previous report predicted that global trade in goods would continue to grow by 4.7 per cent this year.According to the UNCTAD report, global trade growth this year is likely to be lower than expected, given macroeconomic trends. Efforts to shorten supply chains and diversify suppliers could affect global trade patterns amid ongoing logistics disruptions and rising energy prices. In terms of trade flows, the trend towards trade regionalization will increase as a result of various trade agreements and regional initiatives, as well as increased reliance on suppliers closer in geographical location.At present, the global economic recovery is still under great pressure. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in an update to its World Economic Outlook at the end of January that it expects the global economy to grow 4.4 percent this year, down 0.5 percentage points from its forecast in October last year. IMF Managing Director Kristina Georgieva said February 25 that the situation in Ukraine poses significant economic risks for the region and the world. The IMF is assessing the potential impact of the situation in Ukraine on the global economy, including on the functioning of the financial system, on commodity markets and directly on countries with economic ties to the region."The strength of the world economic recovery, the state of demand in major economies, the global epidemic situation, the repair of global supply chains and geopolitical risks will all affect global trade." Lu Yan further analyzed that the world economy is expected to continue to recover this year, but uncertainties keep rising, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict has added new variables to the global economy. The pandemic remains a threat to economic activity and global trade. There is no clear date for when global supply chains will be repaired, congestion at the world's major ports will ease, and global cargo delivery times will be significantly shortened. The current conflict between Russia and Ukraine has severely impacted international markets, with commodity prices, especially energy and food, soaring. The impact of the follow-up development of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the volatility and duration of the international commodity market, and the variables brought about by the aggravation of global inflation and the recovery of the world economy and trade still need to be further observed.