RE:Who will pay for us Energy embargo on Russia?
"jintengflag published on 2022-03-12 09:01:41
US President Joe Biden announced Thursday that he would impose an energy embargo on Russia. The European Union also announced on the same day that it would seek to significantly reduce oil and gas imports from Russia. Analysts believe that the latest us and European sanctions and restrictions will cause further pressure on Russia, but it also faces different degrees of impact.According to the executive order signed by Biden on The 8th, the US will stop importing oil, gas and coal from Russia. In view of Canada has announced the embargo policy against Russia, the North American market has been closed to Russian oil and gas. Earlier in the day, the European Commission announced it would gradually wean itself off Russian energy, with plans to cut eu demand for Russian gas by two-thirds by the end of the year.As a result, light crude for April delivery rose 3.6% to settle at $123.7 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. London Brent crude for May delivery rose 3.87% to settle at $127.98 a barrel.Analysts believe that the US is a net energy exporter and relies much less on Russian energy than Europe, so imposing sanctions on Russian energy exports will hit Europe harder and worsen the growth prospects of relevant economies. Moreover, the impact of the sanctions on supply disruptions has significantly increased the price of commodities such as crude oil, leaving ordinary consumers to bear the burden of higher inflation.For Russia, some international buyers voluntarily stopped buying Russian crude oil out of uncertainty and concern, and the European and American formal embargo or restrictions will undoubtedly aggravate its energy export difficulties.Ubs analyst Giovanni Stonovo said an export disruption could trigger a shutdown of upstream production because of Russia's limited storage capacity.For Its part, Europe faces a serious challenge in finding alternative energy imports because of its heavy dependence on Russian gas supplies. At the same time, because of the regional nature of the gas market, gas prices vary widely from region to region, reducing dependence on Russia will impose high prices on Europe.Ethan Harris, head of global economic research at Bank of America, said if sanctions and high energy prices persist for months, Russia's economy will fall into recession, Europe will slow significantly, and other countries and regions may face a mild slowdown.Carolyn Bain, chief commodity economist at Capital Economics, sees inflation at around 5 per cent in advanced economies by the end of the year if major consuming countries ban Russian energy imports altogether, with reduced household spending power and power rationing likely to tip Europe into recession.For the US, the energy embargo is more symbolic than substantive, but it adds to us inflation fears.The U.S. hasn't imported liquefied natural gas from Russia in years and imported less than 300,000 tons of Russian coal last year, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, so the economic damage from bans in those areas is limited. Still, Russia accounted for about 8 percent of U.S. oil imports last year, and refining products are more closely related to U.S. gasoline, so an embargo on Russia would create inflationary pressure in the United States.The national average price of gasoline rose to $4.173 a gallon, surpassing the all-time high set in July 2008, according to data released Tuesday by AAA.The US Consumer price index rose 7.5% in January from a year earlier, the biggest year-on-year increase since February 1982, according to the Labour Department. Bloomberg expects U.S. inflation to rise to 9 percent by April if oil prices remain above $120 a barrel.Diana Swonk, chief economist at Chiu Tong, an accounting firm, expects the Fed to raise interest rates seven times this year and three more times next year to combat inflation. If oil prices remain above $125 a barrel through the third quarter of this year, the Fed may be forced to raise rates more quickly."